CERTIFICATE

IMPACT FACTOR 2021

Subject Area

  • Life Sciences / Biology
  • Architecture / Building Management
  • Asian Studies
  • Business & Management
  • Chemistry
  • Computer Science
  • Economics & Finance
  • Engineering / Acoustics
  • Environmental Science
  • Agricultural Sciences
  • Pharmaceutical Sciences
  • General Sciences
  • Materials Science
  • Mathematics
  • Medicine
  • Nanotechnology & Nanoscience
  • Nonlinear Science
  • Chaos & Dynamical Systems
  • Physics
  • Social Sciences & Humanities

Why Us? >>

  • Open Access
  • Peer Reviewed
  • Rapid Publication
  • Life time hosting
  • Free promotion service
  • Free indexing service
  • More citations
  • Search engine friendly

Time Series Analysis and Forecast of GDP in Ethiopia: Evidence from Ethiopian Data

Author: 
Gemechu Bekana
Subject Area: 
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Abstract: 

In this thesis a brief discussion of definition and concept of GDP and methods of computing were presented. The Components of GDP, Consumption, Investments, Government expenditure and Net- exports, were studied. The major objectives of this study are to study the trend of GDP and its Componets, to examine the causal relationship among GDP, Consumption, Investments, Government Expenditure and Net-export for Ethiopia using time series data and to forecast the GDP for Ethiopia. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models, Testing Stationary: Unit root test, Estimating Order of the VAR, Cointegration Analysis (testing of cointegration) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) Models are the statistical methods were used in this study. The data used are yearly observations from 1967 to 2004 E.F.Y of the GDP and the four components of GDP of Ethiopia using time series data. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is employed for modeling. The cointegration relations among the series were identified by applying Johansen's cointegration tests, while potential causal relations were examined by employing Granger's causality tests. Moreover, the short run interactions among the variables were determined through the application of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The results of the research imply the existence of short term adjustments and long-term dynamics in the GDP and four components of GDP. Unit root test reveals that all the series are non stationary at level. The result of Johansen test indicates the existence of one?? cointegration relation between the GDP and the forecasting accuracy of this model was checked using RMSE, MAE, MAPE and Theil-U statistics. Finally, using the fitted model out-of-sample forecasts were produced for Ethiopian GDP.

PDF file: 

CALL FOR PAPERS

 

ONLINE PAYPAL PAYMENT

IJMCE RECOMMENDATION

Advantages of IJCR

  • Rapid Publishing
  • Professional publishing practices
  • Indexing in leading database
  • High level of citation
  • High Qualitiy reader base
  • High level author suport

Plagiarism Detection

IJCR is following an instant policy on rejection those received papers with plagiarism rate of more than 20%. So, All of authors and contributors must check their papers before submission to making assurance of following our anti-plagiarism policies.

 

EDITORIAL BOARD

CHUDE NKIRU PATRICIA
Nigeria
Dr. Swamy KRM
India
Dr. Abdul Hannan A.M.S
Saudi Arabia.
Luai Farhan Zghair
Iraq
Hasan Ali Abed Al-Zu’bi
Jordanian
Fredrick OJIJA
Tanzanian
Firuza M. Tursunkhodjaeva
Uzbekistan
Faraz Ahmed Farooqi
Saudi Arabia
Eric Randy Reyes Politud
Philippines
Elsadig Gasoom FadelAlla Elbashir
Sudan
Eapen, Asha Sarah
United State
Dr.Arun Kumar A
India
Dr. Zafar Iqbal
Pakistan
Dr. SHAHERA S.PATEL
India
Dr. Ruchika Khanna
India
Dr. Recep TAS
Turkey
Dr. Rasha Ali Eldeeb
Egypt
Dr. Pralhad Kanhaiyalal Rahangdale
India
DR. PATRICK D. CERNA
Philippines
Dr. Nicolas Padilla- Raygoza
Mexico
Dr. Mustafa Y. G. Younis
Libiya
Dr. Muhammad shoaib Ahmedani
Saudi Arabia
DR. MUHAMMAD ISMAIL MOHMAND
United State
DR. MAHESH SHIVAJI CHAVAN
India
DR. M. ARUNA
India
Dr. Lim Gee Nee
Malaysia
Dr. Jatinder Pal Singh Chawla
India
DR. IRAM BOKHARI
Pakistan
Dr. FARHAT NAZ RAHMAN
Pakistan
Dr. Devendra kumar Gupta
India
Dr. ASHWANI KUMAR DUBEY
India
Dr. Ali Seidi
Iran
Dr. Achmad Choerudin
Indonesia
Dr Ashok Kumar Verma
India
Thi Mong Diep NGUYEN
France
Dr. Muhammad Akram
Pakistan
Dr. Imran Azad
Oman
Dr. Meenakshi Malik
India
Aseel Hadi Hamzah
Iraq
Anam Bhatti
Malaysia
Md. Amir Hossain
Bangladesh
Ahmet İPEKÇİ
Turkey
Mirzadi Gohari
Iran