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estimation of eco-epidemiological model for newcastle disease in Tanzania

Author: 
Alfred Hugo, Oluwole Daniel Makinde, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata and Santosh Kumar
Subject Area: 
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Abstract: 

A deterministic compartmental eco-epidemiological model of Newcastle disease (ND) in Tanzania is proposed and analyzed by using the stability theory of differential equations. The main objective of paper is to estimate the model parameters using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The model is fitted using data for five districts in Dodoma and Singida regions in Tanzania. The sample 10,000 numbers of simulations were used in MCMC in parameters distribution to study the behavior of each parameter in the model. Many parameters show good convergence and we recommend to be used for numerical simulations in similar cases rather than using literature values.

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