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Lyapunov Exponents And Predictability Of Cyclonic Disturbances Over The North Indian Ocean

Author:

R. Uma and Dr. R. Samuel Selvaraj

Subject Area:

Physical Sciences and Engineering

Abstract:

The annual frequency of tropical cyclonic disturbances (≤ 63 knots) and the annual frequency of cyclonic and severe cyclonic storms (34 to 63 knots) over the north Indian Ocean (comprising Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) is analyzed using the Fractal Construction Technique. Recognizing and quantifying chaos in time series represents an important step towards understanding not only the natural behavior of the system but also for the improvement of short term forecasts. An attempt is being made to find the fractal geometry of climate and to predict its periodicity on different temporal scales. Lyapunov exponent, Maximum Lyapunov characteristic exponent and Lyapunov time for the cyclonic disturbances including depression, cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm over the north Indian Ocean has been estimated.

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