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A risk analysis algorithm for budget allocation on economic sectors and business areas: application to angolan crisis situation

Author: 
Alcides Romualdo Neto Simbo
Subject Area: 
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Abstract: 

Angola have been allocating budget to many high-risk business areas. The return of the investments is so far down from the expected values. This paper deals on developing a risk analysis algorithm for responding the question How to allocate the interests to each economics sectors and business areas? We considered three economic sectors and thirty business areas, including Markowitz quadratic programming model in the algorithm. We considered high-risk business area when the interest take values until 1%, moderate-risk when taking values above 1% until 10% and law-risk when taking values bigger than 10%. For risk minimization Until 2030 Angola have to allocate 22,4% of General Budget to the Primary sector, 39,3% to the Secondary and 38,3% to the Tertiary. The good business areas will be Clothing and footwear industry, Materials industry, Forest, Maintenance, Diamond extraction, Iron extraction, Other minerals extraction, Culture and sports, Hotel and tourism, Universities, Fisheries, Livestock, Bank and insurance and Transports. Moderate investment will be done on Mechanic, Information technology and Real estate which are Moderate risk business areas. Else, investor will find high-risks when making business.

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