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Global warming: Changes of Agroclimatic zones in humid subtropical, mountainous and high mountainous regions of Georgia

Author: 
Prof. Meladze, G., Prof. Meladze, M., Prof. Elizbarashvili, N. and Meladze, G.
Subject Area: 
Social Sciences and Humanities
Abstract: 

According to humid subtropical, mountainous and high mountainous regions of Georgia there have been identified tendencies of changes of agro-climatic indicators caused by global warming (increase or decrease). Realized studies confirm that the impact of global warming is more reflected in the mountainous and high mountainous conditions, which has a significant impact on the increase in the sums of active temperatures, extension of the vegetation period, general reduction of atmospheric precipitation and frequent droughts. In humid subtropical, mountainous and high mountainous regions of Georgia by baseline and scenarios increase of the temperature by 1 and 2°C, there is an estimated duration of the vegetation period and are calculated values of the sum of active temperatures (>10°C). In particular, in the humid sub-tropical regions the sum of active temperatures makes 4170°C (baseline), according to the scenario in case of increase by 1°C it makes 4390°C, which is suitable for citrus, fruit, technical and other crops. In mountainous and high mountainous regions of Kakheti by the scenario in case of increase of temperature by 2°C, sum of active temperatures makes 4290-1890°C (respectively). In the mentioned regions according to the data of observations during 60 years (1949-2008) there were detected tendencies of increasing the sum of active temperatures and decreasing of atmospheric precipitation during the vegetation period. There are made regression equations to determine dates of average air temperature above 10°C and sums of active temperatures (>10°C) both for the humid subtropical and mountainous and high mountainous regions as well. By the equations there are defined sums of active temperatures according to baseline and scenarios of future temperature (2030-2050) in case of increase of temperature by 1 and 2°C and are separated zones for diffusion and development of agricultures, production of agricultural goods and their development and diffusion. In the humid subtropical region there are identified 4 micro-zones, which provide for the conditions for full growth of cultures and complete maturity of crops. There is also defined providing sums of active temperatures for full maturity of the crops of the mentioned citrus cultures (lemon, orange, grapefruit, tangerine) in every ten or more years. For hilly (500-1500 m) and mountainous (1500-2500 m) regions of Kakheti there are identified 4 agro-climatic zones according to baseline and scenario (increase by 2°C) stating possible diffusion and development of agricultures. According to future scenarios for the zones of distribution of agricultures will be moved up by 100-150 meters in humid subtropics, and in mountainous and high mountainous regions by- 200-300 m above compared to the current zones of diffusion.

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