Indo-britain trade during gold standard: an econometric view

In this paper author tried to show the trends and patterns of India’s export to Britain and import from Britain during the gold standard period from 1870 to 1913.The paper also seeks to cointegrate among India’s export to Britain and India’s import from Britain with India’s GDP, UK’s GDP, India’s nominal effective exchange rate and Britain inflation rate respectively. Author used semi-log linear models to find trends. Bai-Perron (2003) model is used for structural breaks. Decomposition of trends and cycles were obtained from H.P.Filter model(1997) and Hamilton filter model(2018).Johansen(1988) model was applied to find cointegration and vector error correction processes. Cointegrating equation was used to verify long run causality and Wald test (1943) was applied to scrutinise the short run causality. The paper concludes that both export and import are upward rising with structural breaks showing peaks and troughs. Both have one cointegrating equations with their determinants. India’s export to Britain and import from Britain had long run causalities from India’s and UK’s GDP, India’s nominal effective exchange rate and UK’s inflation respectively. Their VECMs are stable and nonstationary although cointegrating equations move towards equilibrium with low speed of adjustments.