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Wavelet analysis of annual dynamics of maximum temperature from 1878 to 2017 and forecast data hadley center central England temperature (HADCET)

Author: 
Mazurkin Peter Matveevich
Subject Area: 
Life Sciences
Abstract: 

The wavelet analysis of the dynamics of the maximum annual temperature of Central England according to HadCET is carried out by the method of identification of stable regularities. The dynamic series is decomposed into 57 wavelets with a maximum relative error of 0.42%. Based on the forecast of 57 members of the model, 15 members were placed, and 42 members or 73.68% affect the future. Valentina Zharkova's forecast for a small ice age is confirmed, and it will be from 2032 to 2046. The nonlinear two-term trend shows the influence of two forces: the first term is global cooling (the influence of space on the earth's atmosphere), and the second – global warming (the influence of the Earth and humanity). The negative for the third and fourth members is that the fluctuation periods fall from 632.5 and 14.6 years for 1878 to 32 and 5.5 years for 2017. And by 2032, the third member reaches a half-period of 1.4 years. Since 1879, there is an increase in fluctuations and periods decreased by 19.8 and 10.4 times. The increase in frequency indicates a loss of climate stability over 140 years. The forecasts stage from 2018 to 2031 gives further warming from 13.13 to 15.92 0C. Taking into account the underestimation in the models by 2031, the maximum air temperature can reach 17.51 0C. At the stage from 2031 to 2046 will be cold from 15.92 to 10.25 0C. The air temperature will decrease by 55.32%. However, from 2046 to 2051, warming is expected from 10.25 to 13.30 0C. But then from 2051 to 2066 there will be a heat stroke with an increase in air temperature to 38.36 0C in 2061 and then a sharp decline to 3.21 0C in 2066. From 2061 to 2074 is the next global cooling from 38.36 to -120.38 0C. But until 2080 it will be replaced by a rapid rise in temperature to 100.25 0C. Since then, the oceans will begin to boil and by 2088 the temperature will be as on the planet Venus, reaching a maximum of 795 0C. The earth will also become lifeless.

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